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The Chewbacca Defense

- Officially, at least, the 2012 product introductions won't occur until trade show season. Eurobike takes place in late August, followed by Interbike in mid-September. But early summer -- that is, now -- is high season for previews and rumor-mongering. Sneak peeks have become the rule, not the exception. After having our first glimpse at the future, one innovation for 2012 overshadows all else: the electronic shifting of Shimano Ultegra Di2.

Shimano Ultegra Di2By now it's common knowledge that to ride Di2 is to become obsessed with its incomparable shifting. Its overpowering technological superiority makes it a lust-stoking, wallet-choking necessity. Shimano's history suggests the functional experience of Ultegra Di2 will mirror that of Dura-Ace. The main differences are likely to be Ultegra's slightly increased weight and less-polished aesthetics for Ultegra.

Assuming that Ultegra's shift quality is Dura-Ace-like, it will upend the bike industry next year for one crucial reason: Its expected price. First reports of Ultegra Di2 MSRP show it to be around 35% to 40% less than the cost of Dura Ace Di2.

The biggest price disruption from Ultegra Di2 will come from how most bike manufacturers already price complete Ultegra complete bikes. For manufacturers, Ultegra bikes are like the Battle of Verdun: A bloodbath where no one wins. Companies like Specialized, Trek, and Cannondale tantalize their dealers about next year's bike assortment with a small handful of key models that provide spectacular bang for the buck. Visit your local bike shop and you'll see that Ultegra-equipped bikes are hands-down the best value.

Do Specialized, Trek, and Cannondale make fat margins selling Ultegra bikes at such low prices? No. But by enthralling their dealers with two or three key models, they also get them on the hook for a much bigger assortment of higher margin models and ensure their brand gets the maximum footprint on the dealers' sales floor.

All indications are that manufacturers will use Ultegra Di2 bikes as their loss leader for 2012. We've heard word that carbon fiber, Di2-specific frames equipped with full Ultegra Di2 groups will retail starting at $3,500. Even in a quick test ride around a parking lot, Di2 is capable of brainwashing a customer faster than any frameset or wheelset technology ever could. Compared with the alternatives in the sub-$4,000 price range -- SRAM Force, Campy whatever, and even mechanical Dura Ace -- Ultegra Di2 should prove to be technologically dominant and allow for the easiest sales pitch ever. The only X-factor will be availability. Can Shimano produce sufficient quantity for what will inevitably be astronomical demand? If so, Ultegra Di2 will upend the bike market in 2012.

- From the Department of Point vs. Counterpoint: The most impassioned thing written by a PRO in 2011 was published in VeloNews last week. Quite a different perspective from the fatalistic, and perhaps naïve view shown by this headline from ProCycling.

- Did you know Active.com is public company? We had no idea here. Truth be told, they remind us a bit of Ticketmaster, with its disconnect between the size of their service charges and the relative simplicity of the services rendered.

- May is the month of the Giro. July is the month of the Tour. Yet June isn't wholly overshadowed by its bookends. Isn't June a month of subtler glories? The miraculous discovery of new hometown roads. The sight of hollering, profanity, and embarrassing fisticuffs at the local Wednesday night crit and, blessedly, the spectacle doesn't include you. Glories indeed.

- l'affaire Armstrong is taking that familiar path of law-enforcement-accelerated celebrity disintegration, as previously paved by John DeLorean, Martha Stewart, Barry Bonds, and Lindsay Lohan. Hubris begets tragedy; tragedy begets farce; farce begets complete public apathy to the spectacle as a whole. Each of us has our own perspective, but the most lasting legacy may be the recent lesson taught about criminal defense, courtesy of the always-entertaining-and-informative Race Radio (a highly recommended Twitter feed) -- the apparent choice by Lance Armstrong to employ the Chewbacca Defense.

Another perspective comes from Neal Browne, who wrote about why despite the ugly mess he won't be pulling down his Lance posters anytime soon. His point is a legitimate one: Regardless of how doped Lance (or for that matter, the majority of the peloton) was from '99-'05, many of us derived huge joy from those years, and the secrets and sins or our former heroes shouldn't, de facto, nullify our memories of that bygone joy.

What's your fondest memory of The Tainted Era? For me one stands out above all others: The incomprehensibly bionic attack of the US Postal Team at the bottom of Alpe d'Huez in the 2003 Tour de France. It had the fury and the mob-like muscle of Cipo's leadout train. It was literally orchestral in its teamwork. And it took place at a point (the stage had crossed multiple mountain passes already) where GC vulnerability was at a peak.


June 25, 2011

1. The memories and emotions from that era are forever and the medications they used were most likely spread evenly throughout the top echelon. Some may have had access to cutting edge stuff, and they probably still do. LA won those Tours b/c he was incredibly well prepared, got incredibly lucky (no flats/crashes etc) and most likely the whole team was doped. Get over it. 2. The LA thing is a little like religion. If you believe, there's no evidence that can convince you otherwise.
- steve, miami

June 24, 2011

That 2003 Video shouldn't look/feel as old as it does right there :( TIme is flying by. For goodness sakes, they are allowed to take off their helmets! I miss those days. Oh, and the Oakley M-Frames.... <3 I'm such a nerd.
- WV Cycling, Buckhannon, WV

June 24, 2011

"Without question, Lance Armstrong is innocent." OJ Simpson Despite the verdict Armstrong has given me over 20 years of entertainment and motivation. Not happy about the doping. My biggest concern for me is the next generation of riders. I'm at peace with the outcome. Lance doesn't realize that if he comes clean we may like him more. This is the land of 2nd chances. I know I would have doped to race the Tour, let alone win. Just being honest here.
- Bill, Nor Cal

June 24, 2011

Lance's seven TDF wins coinsided with my first seven years of recovery from cancer (brain tumor surgery.) Great inspiration! To date, all "evidence " has been he said, she said. No substantiating hard evidence or failed tests.
- Russ, Franklin, MA

June 23, 2011

So when are you guys gonna use the Wookie defense for a Canyon frame not being attached to my wheels?
- Wheelz, Indy

June 23, 2011

OMG, that fuckin' music is totally Euro! Yes negro, I can add 5+7!
- Dope Head, TX

June 23, 2011

Holy F@$#. Those guys were hauling up that hill....
- Anon, Anon

June 23, 2011

Doesn't ANYONE have a problem with a machine shifting gears on a bike? How about a motor-assisted bottom bracket? A well-worn set of Campy 10-speed shifters is part of the joy of riding for me.
- erich, bethesda

June 23, 2011

Guess it's sorta like the sailor have'n sex with a person he later finds out is a male in a wig...sure, it was sex alright but not comparable to the real thing -- ie., a doped rider win'n amongst other doped riders has NO relevance to me.
- JoeBobTex, Tyler, TX

June 23, 2011

CIA lying expert calls Lance a liar: http://liespotting.com/2011/06/liespotting-lance-armstrong-part-2-expert-analysis/
- David, Falls Church

June 23, 2011

As a clean rider my entire cycling life, it's frustrating to know that there are dopers in the field. I look back on what might have been had everyone been clean. On the other hand, pro cycling is entertainment, so it may be time to set aside the righteous indignation for a little perspective. Are steroids any different than an actress getting plastic surgery that helps her land a role and win an Oscar? Is elective surgery, botox, or filling your chest with plastic any less dangerous than shooting hormones? What about linemen in football? Even without drugs, weighing 300+ pounds isn't healthy. Really, who are we trying to protect? Maybe it's time to use sport to drive medical innovation the same way motor racing resulted in safety advances. EPO is useful for chemo patients, but how much better a drug might we get if development were driven by the spectacle of sport and marketing, instead of just sick people?
- Sean, California

June 23, 2011

Glad folks are finally turning around: Lance doped. Let the real story begin. In re. to the "tainted era": if you are saying that things are better in re. doping today in pro-cycling than they were when Lance was running the show -- your are either disingenuous or delusional. Either way, just like when those who said that Lance very likely doped were called "haters" on this page, it serves the interests of this business and others to foster as positive as possible (good luck!) spin on the pro-cycling scene... Reader Remember: it may come in different colours, vintages or flavors: it's still kool-aid!
- Fred, Macon

June 23, 2011

A'la Barry bonds before and after shot. Let's take a look at Indurain blowing by LA in a TT as if he was a cat 4 brought up from the minor leagues the night before. Then fast forward to LA blowing by Ullrich. Nope, no drugs there. My father went through chemo and went from a 6'3", 210 Lb working man, too hardly able to get up on his own. LA gets destroyed by Indurain, goes through chemo, then wins the tour 7 times. sorry, can't find the math proof that makes that work...
- JAM, Angier

June 22, 2011

recently, while trying to explain the whole LA/doping in pro cycling thing to a mr know-it-all non-cycling fan... i noted that while i wasn't exactly a fan of the yellow wristed one, some of my finest moments of yelling at the TV involved him... >the look >the musette >cyclocross into Gap >passing Ullrich in the stage 1 TT >Ullie goes off road, LA waits >Ullie doesn't quite make the round about >pas de cadeaux >Riis attacks shortened stage & parlays that into '96 tour win (man, i thought that was just a *brilliant* tactic) >four months earlier, mapei goes 1, 2, 3 in roubaix none of these are really obscure... but maybe what i more hang on to is how snake-bit ullie was.
- al b, madison

June 22, 2011

Do u think Campy electric will be priced for OEM?
- Michael McNutt, Edina

June 22, 2011

Turning on LA is fashionable these days but recommending twitter "all doping all the time" personas? Lame.
- Dean, San Francisco

June 22, 2011

Who knew Edgar Allen Poe could make you forget about broken bones. Regardless, the accelerations on that climb were insane.
- Mcshane, Sewickley

June 22, 2011

Tainted Era? Cyclist have doped in some form for the past 100 years. To call that period tainted is to fall for the media bull crap. Show a little more class and stick to good and vastly popular side of cycling..... stick to seeing the beauty in a guy and his bike. Doped or not... Lance is a badass on a bike.
- Paul, Greenville SC

June 22, 2011

Active's board of directors are all from Ticketmaster. Its not by coincidence that they are so similar. A little research and you'll see how much more similar they are than you might realize. See also: MoneyTree (yes...the cash lenders).
- Joe G, San Diego

June 22, 2011

Best "Tainted Era" memory..have a seat,this is gonna take a while.The 97 tour with Festina gang raping Ullrich and Rous winning the stage.VDB blowing off pure climbers in the mountains while the commentators are holding back laughter during the Vuelta and pure climbers blowing off specialist TT riders in the TT.Oh,before i forget,Zulle's first week in the 98 giro then the soigneur screws up his prep.and the race.
- l.enrique, california